Development of a High-Resolution Multiscale Modeling and Prediction System for Bay of Bengal, Part II: An Application to October 2008

Abstract

A high-resolution (10 km × 10 km) multiscale ocean modeling system was developed for the Bay of Bengal (BOB) region for short-term ocean hindcasts/forecasts. A physical validation of this system that was based on climatological initialization and short-term simulations was presented in Part I of this series of studies. Realistic structures for prevalent eddies, fronts and gyres were reasonably reproduced and validated for three individual months (February, June and October). In this study, we present an application and synoptic validation of the system for October 2008 in a hindcast mode. The system is based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), which assimilates satellite and in-situ measurements within the background climatology using an objective analysis to produce the synoptic initial condition for the model and/or to produce an estimation of the current ocean state. A meteorological forecast is then input into this synoptic three-dimensional ocean model to produce the ocean hindcast/forecast. The high-density Array for Real-time Geotropic Oceanography (ARGO) observations, and the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite’s microwave imager (TMI) passes during the beginning of the month of October 2008, provided a unique opportunity for the system to assimilate these in-situ observations at initialization. Then, the ARGO and TMI observations during the later part of October 2008 were used for the statistical validation of the system’s fidelity. The validation shows that the hindcast/forecast system can reasonably predict the ocean currents, temperature and salinity. The forecast error increases as the forecast time window increases, although the system has a reasonable predictability for up to seven to ten days. The assimilation of both in-situ ARGO and satellite data at initialization produced better hindcasts/forecasts.