Carnap’s Logical Probability and Free Will Dilemma
- 1 Institute of Philosophy, Jagiellonian University, Cracow, Poland
Abstract
Pondering the question of free will in the context of probability allows us to take a fresh look at a number of old problems. We are able to avoid deterministic entrapments and attempt to look at free will as an outcome of the entire decision-making system. In my paper, I will argue that free will should be considered in the context of a complex system of decisions, not individual cases. The proposed system will be probabilistic in character, so it will be embedded in the calculus of probability. To achieve the stated goal, I will refer to two areas of Carnap’s interest: the relationship between free will and determinism, and the probability-based decision-making system. First, I will present Carnap’s compatibilist position. On this basis, I will show how free will can be examined on deterministic grounds. Then I will present Carnap’s p robabilistic project—the so-called logical interpretation of probability. In add ition to presenting its characteristics and functionality, I will argue for its usefulness in the context of decision analysis and its immunity to problems a ssociated with determinism. Finally, I will show how the two mention ed eleme nts can be combined, as a result of which I will present a concept for a probabilistic analysis of free will. In this context, I will identify free will with the individual characteristics of the system. My main aim is to present the theme of free will in the light of a formal analysis based on probability rather than metaphysical assumptions.
- Berofsky, B. (1987) Freedom from Necessity. Routledge & Kegan Paul.
- Campbell, J. (1997). A Compatibilist Theory of Alternative Possibilities. Philosophical Studies, 88, 319-330. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1004280421383
- Carnap, R. (1950). Logical Foundations of Probability. University of Chicago Press.
- Carnap, R. (1966). Philosophical Foundations of Physics: An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science. Basic Books.
- Carnap, R. (1968). Inductive Logic and Inductive Intuition. Studies in Logic and the Foundations of Mathematics, 51, 258-314. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0049-237X(08)71047-4
- Carnap, R. (1971). A Basic System of Inductive Logic, Part I. In R. Carnap, & R. C. Jeffrey (Eds.), Volume 1 (pp. 33-165). University of California Press. https://doi.org/10.1525/9780520334250-003
- Childers, T. (2013). Philosophy and Probability. Oxford University Press.
- Dilman, I. (1999). Free Will—An Historical and Philosophical Introduction. Routledge
- Galavotti, M. (2011). The Modern Epistemic Interpretations of Probability: Logicism and Subjectivism. Handbook of the History of Logic, 10, 153-203. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-52936-7.50005-7
- Gillies, D. (2000). Philosophical Theories of Probability. Routledge.
- Ginet, C. (1997). Freedom, Responsibility, and Agency. The Journal of Ethics, 1, 85-98. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009764120516
- Grgic, F. & Pecnjak D. (2018). Free Will & Action. Springer Nature https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-99295-2
- Griffith, M. (2022). Free Will the Basics (2nd ed.). Routledge.
- Kane, R. (Ed.) (2005). The Oxford Handbook of Free Will. Oxford University Press.
- Kane, R. H., & Sartorio C. (2021). Do We Have Free Will? Routledge.
- Keynes, J. M. (1921). A Treatise on Probability. Macmillan.
- Laplace, P. S. (1951). A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities (English Translation of the 6th French Edition). Dover.
- Schlick, M. (1931) Die Kausalitat in der gegenwartigen Physik. Naturwissenschaften, 19, 145-162. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01516406
- Skryms, B. (2000). Choice and Chance (4th ed.). Wadsworth, Inc.