This article analyzes factors relating to moderation and immoderation of post-rebel parties in power, thus making a significant departure from previous studies, which have tended to examine these from a position of political weakness. The rigorous analysis marries approaches and findings from comparative politics and Middle East studies with a view to making an original, qualitative contribution to the academic debate on the inclusion of Islamist parties in formal politics based on lessons learned from the experiences of 12 post-rebel parties across the globe, thus also breaking with the trend for single-country case studies or larger, quantitative studies. The research finds that whether post-rebel parties in power are likely to behave moderately largely depends upon the political environment at the time of the conflict ’ s end, i.e., when these parties first gain entry into the formal political system. Post-rebel parties entering a political system with a tradition of resolving political disagreements within the electoral arena, in which the post-rebel party faces riva lry from sizeable competitors, and where the main issue driving the post-rebel party ’ s support during the conflict is no longer salient, are more likely to behave inclusively and remain moderate once in power. With reference to Islamist parties, the issue thus becomes a question of how to best create an environment that facilitates Islamist moderation upon these parties ’ inclusion into formal politics, rather than a debate over whether the inclusion or exclusion of such parties will lead to their moderation. This finding is likely to significantly change how scholars approach Islamist parties and their inclusion into formal politics.
Acosta, B. (2014). From Bombs to Ballots: When Militant Organizations Transition to Political Parties. Journal of Politics, 76, 666-683. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381614000188
Al-Anani, K. (2019). Inclusion-Moderation Thesis: Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Oxford Research Encyclopedias. https://oxfordre.com/politics/politics/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore- 9780190228637-e-1332?rskey=G3kLkT&result=20 https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.1332
Almeida, P. (2009). Social Movements, Political Parties, and Electoral Triumph in El Salvador. NACLA Report on the Americas, 42, 16-21. https://doi.org/10.1080/10714839.2009.11722215
Anderson, D., & Fisher, J. (2016). Authoritarianism and the Securitization of Development in Uganda. In T. Hagmann, & F. Reyntjens (Eds.), Aid and Authoritarianism in Africa (pp. 67-90). London: Zed Books.
Anderson, L. (1997). Fulfilling Prophecies: State Policy and Islamist Radicalism. In J. Esposito (Ed.), Political Islam: Revolution, Radicalism or Reform (pp. 17-31). Boulder: Lynne Rienner.
Ante, A. (2010). State Building and Development: Two Sides of the Same Coin? Exploring the case of Kosovo. Hamburg: Disserta Verlag.
Ashour, O. (2009). The De-Radicalization of Jihadists: Transforming Armed Islamist Movements. London: Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203877098
Ashour, O. (2011). Continuity and Change in Islamist Political Thought and Behaviour: Transformations of Armed Islamist Movements in Egypt and Algeria. In B. Korany (Ed.), The Changing Middle East (pp. 139-166). Cairo: American University in Cairo Press. https://doi.org/10.5743/cairo/9789774163531.003.0007
Bayat, A. (2007). Making Islam Democratic: Social Movements and the Post-Islamist Turn. Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press.
Bellamy, A. (2001). Croatia after Tudjman: The 2000 Parliamentary and Presidential Elections. Problems of Post-Communism, 48, 18-31. https://doi.org/10.1080/10758216.2001.11655948
Berti, B. (2013). Armed Political Organizations: From Conflict to Integration. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Boduszyński, M. (2010). Regime Change in the Yugoslav Successor States. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Boege, V., Brown, M. A., & Clements, K. (2009). Hybrid Political Orders, Not Fragile States. Peace Review, 21, 13-21. https://doi.org/10.1080/10402650802689997
Boggero, M. (2009). Darfur and Chad: A fragmented Ethnic Mosaic. Journal of Contemporary African Studies, 27, 21-35. https://doi.org/10.1080/02589000802576673
Boyle, M. (2014). Violence after War: Explaining Instability in Post-Conflict States. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Brooks, H. (2004). The Dominant Party System: Challenges for South Africa’s Second Decade of Democracy. EISA Occasional Paper No. 25 (October). https://eisa.org.za/pdf/OP25.pdf
Browers, M. (2009). Political Ideology in the Arab World: Accommodation and Transformation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511626814
Cavatorta, F., & Merone, F. (2013). Moderation through Exclusion? The Journey of the Tunisian Ennahda from Fundamentalist to Conservative Party. Democratization, 20, 857-875. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2013.801255
Cavatorta, F., & Storm, L. (Eds.) (2018). Political Parties in the Arab World. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press.
Cavatorta, F., Storm, L., & Resta, V. (2020). Routledge Handbook of Political Parties in the Middle East and North Africa. London: Routledge. (Forthcoming)
Cheeseman, N. (2015). Democracy in Africa. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139030892
Cheeseman, N., & Klaas, B. (2018). How to Rig an Election. New Haven, CT and London: Yale University Press.
Clark, J. (2006). The Conditions of Islamist Moderation: Unpacking Cross-Ideological Cooperation in Jordan. International Journal of Middle East Studies, 38, 539-560. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020743806412460
Clark, J. (2008). The Failure of Democracy in the Republic of Congo. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.
Clark, J., & Schwedler, J. (2003). Who Opened the Window? Women’s Activism in Islamist Parties. Comparative Politics, 35, 293-313. https://doi.org/10.2307/4150178
Cocozzelli, F. (2013). Between Democratisation and Democratic Consolidation: The Long Path to Democracy in Kosovo. Perspectives on European Politics and Society, 14, 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1080/15705854.2012.732395
de Waal, A. (2009). Mission Without End? Peacekeeping in the African Political Marketplace. International Affairs, 85, 99-113. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2346.2009.00783.x
de Zeeuw, J. (2010). “Sons of War”: Parties and Party Systems in Post-War El Salvador and Cambodia. In P. Burnell, & A. Gerrits (Eds.), Promoting Party Politics in Emerging Democracies (pp. 112-137). London: Routledge.
Fisher, S. (2006). Political Change in Post-Communist Slovakia and Croatia: From Nationalist to Europeanist. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230600881
Giliomee, H., Myburgh, J., & Schlemmer, L. (2001). Dominant Party Rule, Opposition Parties and Minorities in South Africa. Democratization, 8, 161-182. https://doi.org/10.1080/714000181
Giraudy, A. (2019). Conceptualizing State Strength: Moving beyond Strong and Weak States. Revista de Ciencia Política, 32, 599-611. https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-090X2012000300005
Gordon, S. L. (2018). Racial Animosity and Political Party Partisanship in South Africa: The Case of the African National Congress and the Black African majority. Democratization, 25, 351-368. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2017.1365840
Hansen, K. (2013). A Democratic Dictator’s Success: How Chad’s President Deb Defeated the Military Opposition in Three Years (2008-2011). Journal of Contemporary African Studies, 31, 583-599. https://doi.org/10.1080/02589001.2013.840974
Haughton, T., & Fisher, S. (2008). From the Politics of State-Building to Programmatic Politics. Party Politics, 14, 435-454. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068808090254
Holland, A. (2013). Right on Crime? Conservative Party Politics and Mano Dura Policies in El Salvador. Latin American Research Review, 48, 44-67. https://doi.org/10.1353/lar.2013.0009
Huntington, S. (1991). The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press.
Ibrahim, S. E. (1980). Anatomy of Egypt’s Militant Islamic Groups. International Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 12, 424-453. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020743800031238
Ishiyama, J. (2002). A Typology of Communist Successor Parties. In A. Bozóki, & J. Ishiyama (Eds.), The Communist Successor Parties of Central and Eastern Europe (pp. 271-286). Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003063629-16
Ishiyama, J. (2015). Regime Legacies and Governance in Post-Communist States. Taiwan Journal of Democracy, 11, 1-24.
Ishiyama, J. (2019). Identity Change and Rebel Party Political Success. Government and Opposition, 54, 454-484. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2018.48
Ishiyama, J., & Batta, A. (2011). Swords into Plowshares: The Organizational Transformation of Rebel Groups into Political Parties. Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 44, 369-379. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.postcomstud.2011.10.004
Janda, K. (1993). Comparative Political Parties: Research and Theory. In A. Finifter (Ed.), Political Science: The State of the Discipline II (pp. 163-191). Washington DC: American Political Science Association.
Jensen, N., & Wanchekon, L. (2004). Resource Wealth and Political Regimes in Africa. Comparative Political Studies, 37, 816-841. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414004266867
Jones, C., & Wittig, K. (2016). The 2015 Legislative and Presidential Elections in Burundi: An Unfinished Post-Conflict Transition. Electoral Studies, 43, 206-208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.04.012
Joshi, M., & Mason, D. (2007). Land Tenure, Democracy, and Insurgency in Nepal: Peasant Support for Insurgency Versus Democracy. Asian Survey, 47, 393-414. https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2007.47.3.393
Karakaya, S., & Yildirim, A. K. (2013). Islamist Moderation in Perspective: Comparative Analysis of the Moderation of Islamist and Western Communist Parties. Democratization, 20, 1322-1349. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2012.696612
Katz, R., & Mair, P. (1995). Changing Models of Party Organization and Party Democracy: The Emergence of the Cartel Party. Party Politics, 1, 5-28. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068895001001001
Kirdis, E. (2018). Wolves in Sheep Clothing of Victims of Times? Discussing the Immoderation of Incumbent Islamic Parties in Turkey, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. Democratization, 25, 901-918. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2018.1441826
Kopecky, P., Mair, P., & Spirova, M. (2012). Party Patronage and Party Government in European Democracies. Oxford: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199599370.001.0001
Kovacs, M. (2007). From Rebellion to Politics. Stockholm: Uppsala University Department of Government.
Kovacs, M., & Hatz, S. (2016). Rebel-to-Party Transformations in Civil War Peace Processes 1975-2011. Democratization, 23, 990-1008. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2016.1159558
Kramer, G. (1994). The Integration of the Integrationist: A Comparative Study of Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia. In G. Salamé (Ed.), Democracy without Democrats? (pp. 229-246). London: I.B. Tauris.
Lawoti, M., & Pahari, A. (Eds.) (2010). The Maoist Insurgency in Nepal. London: Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203869390
Leach, M. (2013). Timor-Leste in 2012: Beyond International Statebuilding? Asian Survey, 53, 156-161. https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2013.53.1.156
Lehoucq, F. (1995). The Elections of the Century in El Salvador. Electoral Studies, 14, 179-183. https://doi.org/10.1016/0261-3794(95)96842-6
Lemarchand, R. (2009). The Dynamics of Violence in Central Africa. Philadelphia, PA: University of Philadelphia Press. https://doi.org/10.9783/9780812202595
Levitsky, S., & Way, L. (2010). Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes after the Cold War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511781353
Lijphart, A. (1977). Democracy in Plural Societies. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Lyons, T. (2004). Post-Conflict Elections and the Process of Demilitarizing Politics: The Role of Electoral Administration. Democratization, 11, 36-62. https://doi.org/10.1080/1351034042000238167
Lyons, T. (2010). Soft Intervention and the Transformation of Militias into Political Parties. In M. Hoddie, & C. Hartzell (Eds.), Strengthening Peace in Post-Conflict War States (pp. 145-162). Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
Lyons, T. (2016). From Victorious Rebels to Strong Authoritarian Parties: Prospects for Post-War Democratization. Democratization, 23, 1026-1041. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2016.1168404
Makara, S., Rakner, L., & Svasand, L. (2009). Turnaround: The National Resistance Movement and the Reintroduction of a Multiparty System in Uganda. International Political Science Review, 30, 185-204. https://doi.org/10.1177/0192512109102436
Manning, C. (2007). Party-Building on the Heels of War: El Salvador, Bosnia, Kosovo and Mozambique. Democratization, 14, 253-272. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510340701245777
Manning, C., & Smith, I. (2019). Electoral Performance by Post-Rebel Parties. Government and Opposition, 54, 415-453. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2018.34
Matanock, A. (2017). Electing Peace: From Civil Conflict to Political Participation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316987179
Matfess, H. (2015). Authoritarianism and the New Politics of African Strong Men. African Studies Review, 58, 181-204. https://doi.org/10.1017/asr.2015.43
Mattes, R., & Piombo, J. (2001). Opposition Parties and the Voters in South Africa’s General Election of 1999. Democratization, 8, 101-128. https://doi.org/10.1080/714000211
Miles, W. (1995). Tragic Tradeoffs: Democracy and Security in Chad. The Journal of Modern African Studies, 33, 53-65. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022278X0002084X
Moussalli, A. (1999). Moderate and Radical Fundamentalism. Gainesville, FL: University Press of Florida.
Norton, A. R. (1995). The Challenge of Inclusion in the Middle East. Current History, 94, 1-6.
Pahwa, S. (2017). Pathways of Islamist Adaptation: The Egyptian Muslim Brothers’ Lessons for Inclusion Moderation Theory. Democratization, 24, 1066-1084. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2016.1273903
Panebianco, A. (1988). Political Parties. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Reilly, B. (2002). Elections in Post-Conflict Scenarios: Constraints and Dangers. International Peacekeeping, 9, 118-139. https://doi.org/10.1080/714002729
Reyntjens, F. (1993). The Proof of the Pudding is in the Eating: The June 1993 Elections in Burundi. Journal of Modern African Studies, 31, 563-583. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022278X00012246
Reyntjens, F. (2006). Burundi: A Peaceful Transition after a Decade of War? African Affairs, 105, 117-135. https://doi.org/10.1093/afraf/adi092
Reyntjens, F. (2009). The Great African War: Congo and Regional Geopolitics, 1996-2006. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511596698
Reyntjens, F. (2013). Political Governance in Post-Genocide Rwanda. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107338647
Rivetti, P., & Kraetzschmar, H. (Eds.) (2018). Islamists and the Politics of the Arab Uprisings. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press.
Rudloff, P., & Findley, M. (2016). The Downstream Effects of Combatant Fragmentation on Civil War Recurrence. Journal of Peace Research, 53, 19-32. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343315617067
Samset, I., & Dalby, O. (2003). Rwanda: Presidential and Parliamentary Elections 2003. NORDEM Report 12. https://www.cmi.no/publications/file/1770-rwanda-presidential-and-parliamentary-elections.pdf
Sartori, G. (1976). Parties and Party Systems: A Framework for Analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Schedler, A. (2006). Electoral Authoritarianism: The Dynamics of Unfree Elections. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.
Schedler, A. (2013). The Politics of Uncertainty: Sustaining and Subverting Electoral Authoritarianism. Oxford: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199680320.001.0001
Schwedler, J. (2007). Democratization, Inclusion and the Moderation of Islamist Parties. Development, 50, 56-61. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.development.1100324
Schwedler, J. (2011). Can Islamists Become Moderates? Rethinking the Inclusion-Moderation Hypothesis. World Politics, 63, 347-376. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887111000050
Schwedler, J. (2013). Islamists in Power: Inclusion, Moderation, and the Arab Uprisings. Middle East Development Journal, 5, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793812013500065
Seekings, J. (2008). The Continuing Salience of Race: Discrimination and Diversity in South Africa. Journal of Contemporary African Studies, 26, 1-25. https://doi.org/10.1080/02589000701782612
Shugart, M., & Carey, J. (1992). Presidents and Assemblies: Constitutional Design and Electoral Dynamics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139173988
Sindre, G. (2016a). Internal Party Democracy in Former Rebel Parties. Party Politics, 22, 501-511. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068814550436
Sindre, G. (2016b). In Whose Interests? Former Rebel Parties and Ex-Combatant Interest Group Mobilisation in Aceh and East Timor. Civil Wars, 18, 192-213. https://doi.org/10.1080/13698249.2016.1205564
Southall, R. (2001). Opposition in South Africa: Issues and Problems. Democratization, 8, 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1080/714000183
Southern, N. (2011). Political Opposition and the Challenges of a Dominant Party System: The Democratic Alliance in South Africa. Journal of Contemporary African Studies, 29, 281-298. https://doi.org/10.1080/02589001.2011.581478
Stanley, W. (2006). El Salvador: State-Building before and after Democratisation, 1980-95. Third World Quarterly, 27, 101-114. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436590500369311
Suazo, A. (2013). Tools of Change: Long-Term Inclusion in Peace Processes. PRAXIS: The Fletcher Journal of Human Security, 28, 5-27.
Taylor, A. (2005). Electoral Systems and the Promotion of “Consociationalism” in a Multi-Ethnic Society. The Kosovo Assembly Elections of November 2001. Electoral Studies, 24, 435-463. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2004.09.001
Tobolka, R. (2014). Political Parties in Burundi: Identity and Organizational Cohesion. SSRN Working Paper. https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=34911511506408801309509312509409306404606304804609506502812507612106701502 30050191081030130420470601220550201230880270021150051160540210300820030810711 21127115069101086055022027115009097101104078083074079026110070104103124023119 077095098116115084090126&EXT=pdf https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2483954
Tripp, A. (2004). The Changing Face of Authoritarianism in Africa: The Case of Uganda. Africa Today, 50, 3-26. https://doi.org/10.1353/at.2004.0035
van de Walle, N. (2003). Presidentialism and Clientelism in Africa’s Emerging Party Systems. Journal of Modern African Studies, 41, 297-321. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022278X03004269
Vander Weyden, P. (2007). Founding Elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo: A Highly Fragmented Party System. Journal of African Elections, 6, 203-218. https://doi.org/10.20940/JAE/2007/v6i1a10
Wegner, E., & Pellicer, M. (2009). Islamist Moderation without Democratization: The Coming of Age of the Moroccan Party of Justice and Development. Democratization, 16, 157-175. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510340802575890
Wickham, C. R. (2004). The Path to Moderation: Strategy and Learning in the Formation of Egypt’s Wasat Party. Comparative Politics, 36, 205-228. https://doi.org/10.2307/4150143
Wickham, C. R. (2013). The Muslim Brotherhood. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Wilson, A. (2017). Congo Brazzaville: Political History. Brazzaville: Victoria General Printing.
Wittig, K. (2016). Politics in the Shadow of the Gun: Revisiting the Literature on “Rebel-to-Party Transformations” though the Case of Burundi. Civil Wars, 18, 137-159. https://doi.org/10.1080/13698249.2016.1205561