The Relationship between the Centre and Periphery in the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the Implications of Change and Succession for the Country’s Political Stability

Abstract

This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the evolving political landscape in Iran, particularly in the context of center-periphery dynamics and the anticipated post-Khamenei era. Rather than focusing solely on the activities of Masoud Pezeshkiyan, the article delves into the broader processes, promises, and conflicts that define the current political climate. It examines the conflicting groups within Iran, the ongoing struggle between reformists and conservatives, and how these dynamics are shaping the country’s future, particularly as the nation approaches a possible transition of leadership after Ali Khamenei. The article uses center-periphery theory as a key framework to examine the concentration of power and resources in Tehran and other central regions, as opposed to the deprivation of peripheral regions. This theoretical approach helps to illustrate how these inequalities have fostered deep-seated tensions and social injustices that are exacerbated by the country’s ethno-religious diversity. In the context of the post-Khamenei era, the article discusses how the possible succession of Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader’s son, could affect these dynamics. Mojtaba’s growing influence within conservative circles raises significant concerns about the future of political reform and the potential for increased centralization of power. The article explores how this scenario could affect various ethnic groups and minorities, particularly those in the peripheral regions who have been historically marginalized. The discussion includes an examination of the promises made by different political factions, including reformists who advocate greater decentralization and inclusion of ethnic minorities, and conservatives who generally support the status quo of centralized control. The potential for these promises to be fulfilled—or not—under a new leadership is critically assessed. The article also considers the role of ethnic minorities and marginalized groups in this political transition. It analyzes how these communities could either influence or be influenced by the changing power dynamics in a post-Khamenei Iran. The potential for these groups to play a more prominent role in the nation’s political future is weighed against the challenges posed by deeply entrenched power structures and persistent ethnic and religious discrimination. Finally, this article provides a detailed examination of current political tensions in Iran, focusing on the implications of the center-periphery divide, the potential post-Khamenei transition, and the role of ethnic minorities in this evolving landscape. It highlights how the promises of political reform, the conflicts between competing factions, and the looming power shift could help shape Iran’s future, particularly in terms of social justice and the inclusion of marginalized communities within the broader national framework.