The Reality of Tariffs: The Truth behind the Numbers

Abstract

This paper examines the economic events correlated with the recent implementation of tariffs by President Donald Trump, focusing on the United States, Canada, Mexico, and China. Contrary to the anticipated economic benefits, the analysis shares mixed results. The study evaluates key macroeconomic metrics before, during, and after the tariff implementation. We also examined the volatility, trading volumes, and returns for the stock markets in these countries, and returns for specific industries in the US. The findings suggest a correlation between tariff implementation and negative economic performance in the United States, as well as notable setbacks in Mexico. For Canada and China, the data indicates a range of economic outcomes that appear to be associated with the timing of the tariffs. Additionally, the analysis of stock markets and industries points to increased volatility and a variety of effects that seem to be linked to tariff events, with certain industries and countries experiencing significant fluctuations in returns and trading volumes. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of understanding the broader economic implications of tariffs. By analyzing the data comprehensively, we can better grasp the complexities and uncertainties introduced by such policies. This paper emphasizes the necessity of thorough analysis to guide future policy decisions and minimize potential adverse effects on the global economy.