Research ArticleOpen AccessGoogle Scholar indexed
Empirical Study on the Sustainable Development of Domestic Tourism
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Qinghai Nationalities University, Xining, China
- 1 School of Mathematics and Statistics, Qinghai Nationalities University, Xining, China
Open Journal of Statistics·Volume 10 (2020)·Pages 651–658·Published 10 July 2020·DOI10.4236/ojs.2020.104039
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Abstract
Taking the number of domestic tourists as the research object, an appropriate model is established to analyze the sustainable development of China’s tourism industry. The number of domestic tourists in China from 1985 to 2015 was taken as a sample, and the ARIMA model was established using Eviews 6.0. Finally, the ARIMA(0, 2, 1) model is established. After testing, the model fits well (MAPE = 7.363) and the prediction accuracy is extremely high (99.56%). The ARIMA model’s short-term prediction of the number of tourists is reasonable.
KeywordsNumber of TouristsARIMA ModelPredictive Analysis
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