Modeling Seasonal Fractionally Integrated Autoregressive Moving Average-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model with Seasonal Level Shift Intervention

Abstract

This paper introduces the class of seasonal fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average - generalized conditional heteroskedastisticty (SARFIMA- GARCH) models, with level shift type intervention that are capable of capturing simultaneously four key features of time series: seasonality, long range dependence, volatility and level shift. The main focus is on modeling seasonal level shift (SLS) in fractionally integrated and volatile processes. A natural extension of the seasonal level shift detection test of the mean for a realization of time series satisfying SLS-SARFIMA and SLS-GARCH models w as derived. Test statistics that are useful to examine if seasonal level shift in a n SARFIMA-GARCH model is statistically plausible were established. Estimation of SLS-SARFIMA and SLS-GARCH parameters w as also considered.