Extreme Values Approach in Food Risk Modeling

Abstract

In this paper we estimate the incubation period of a possible pathology following exposure to dioxins during a poor diet. The tools developed for this purpose include the probabilistic extremal model and the stochastic behavior of the distribution tails of the contamination. We propose a cumulative distribution function for a random variable that follows both a Gaussian distribution and a GPD. A global optimization method is also explored for the efficient estimation of parameters of GPD.