Odds Ratio & Relative Risk Ratio of Buoy Conditions for Storms in the Atlantic Basin

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to bring awareness to the general public that certain conditions that occur at a buoy in the Atlantic Basin, such as wind located at the buoy, pressure located at a buoy, water temperature located at a buoy, atmospheric pressure located at a buoy, may be useful in helping predict when a hurricane could possibly hit the state of Florida in the future. One of the goals of this paper is to bring new statistical methods to investigate and analyze data, which will create better predicable measures in determining when a hurricane will possibly hit the state of Florida. In this paper , the topics of binary logistic regression and multinomial regression modeling are discussed in reference to their outcomes of both the odds ratio and relative risk ratio respectively. The coefficients from these models will show which prospective buoy conditions are possibly more responsible for indication of a storm being present in the Atlantic Basin. In this paper, the data that was used and compiled into a larger data set came from two different sources. First, the hurricane data for the years 1992 - 2013 came from Unisys Weather site (Atlantic Basin Hurricanes data) and the buoy data has been available from the National Buoy Center. In this paper, the variables of interest are: storm present, buoy wind speed, buoy pressure, buoy atmospheric temperature, buoy water temperature and buoy wind direction. The buoy conditions are the buoy wind, the buoy wind direction, the buoy pressure, buoy atmospheric temperature and the buoy water temperature.