Has Tom Brady Passed His Prime?

Abstract

The author examines the career passing statistics of Tom Brady (2000 to present), quarterback for the New England Patriots of the National Football League (NFL). In the categories of completions, attempts, completion percentage, passing yards, yards per attempt, touchdowns, and interceptions, there is no evidence of decline in per game averages since 2008 (when he tore his ACL) relative to his seven seasons as a starter before 2008. Moreover, there is no evidence of any statistically discernible performance change in his most recent four seasons as a starter relative to the three prior seasons. His consistency based on the coefficient of variation in games won is marginally better than his consistency in games lost, with one notable exception. Tom Brady’s interceptions per game were more consistent during losses than they were during wins.