Spatial Risk Assessment for the Proposed East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP)

Abstract

A well thought out risk assessment process enables asset owners and stakeholders to carry out effective and efficient risk management through specific actions that minimize the likelihood of risk occurrence. The intention is to reduce risk to the lowest practical level possible. Whereas an impact assessment was carried out for the proposed East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), it does not exhaustively point out all the potential risks associated with the pipeline establishment. This article therefore, focuses on the use of geospatial technologies in the development of a spatial risk assessment model for enhancing the security and safety of the proposed pipeline and the surrounding environment. This was achieved through identifying and incorporating other potential risk factors such as terrorist attacks, political violence, social unrest, theft, floods and earthquake. These factors can paralyze pipeline operations which may lead to gross loss of revenue, destruction of property and livelihood. The risk assessment model was developed using the Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach. The input factors were independently assessed depending on their relative influence on pipeline security and safety based on the history of their occurrence in the study area. These were proportionally assigned relative weights depending on their proximity to the pipeline. The study modeled risk based on Cova’s proposed approach, which considers risk to be a product of hazard and vulnerability (Risk = hazard * vulnerability). The results of the study indicate that the section of the pipeline that traverses through Uganda is more at risk than its Tanzanian counterpart. This can be attributed to the presence of terror threats and political unrest in Uganda. The quantitative results further revealed that approximately 265,504 hectares of vegetation cover and 9,149 households are at risk of being destroyed and displaced by pipeline operations respectively. To effectively enhance the security of the pipeline, the article proposes a collaboration between different stakeholders in the oil and gas sector, including investors, researchers, biodiversity conservationists, industry professionals, technology developers, the private sector, Government, NGOs and Civil Society Organizations. This will facilitate integrated knowledge and expertise sharing on various methodologies to ensure that all spheres of the economy, including biodiversity conservation, are strongly considered.