Statistical Assessment of the Wind Energy Potential in the Baktchoro Area of Chad

Abstract

In this article, we present an assessment of the wind energy potential at the Baktchoro site based on a statistical analysis of wind speeds using the Weibull distribution, applied at various heights ranging from 10 to 100 m. The results highlight marked seasonal variability in the resource, with higher speeds during the dry season, particularly from January to May, and a significant decrease during the wet season, especially between July and October. At 10 m, average monthly speeds range from 2.30 to 4.04 m/s, indicating a weak to moderate wind regime. However, vertical extrapolation shows a significant improvement in the wind resource with altitude, with speeds reaching 7.34 m/s at 100 m, while the maximum power density reaches 424.83 W/m 2 in April. The Weibull parameters, with a shape factor ranging from 1.26 to 1.88, reflect significant wind variability. The annual frequency analysis reveals that 54.8% of wind speeds are below 3 m/s, highlighting the need to select wind turbines with a low start-up speed. A comparison of the turbines studied shows that the Bergey Excel 10 offers the best performance, with an estimated power output of 3.56 kW and a capacity factor of 0.36. The contribution of this study lies in the characterization of the Baktchoro wind resource, the identification of favorable wind speeds and periods, and guidance on technology selection. The results confirm the suitability of a hybrid photovoltaic-wind system for improving the site’s energy stability.