Evaluation of Renewable Energy Vulnerability to Climate Change in Brazil: A Case Study of Biofuels and Solar Energy

Abstract

This study aims to calculate indicators and indexes to subsidize the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation of the renewable energy sector to climate change in Brazil, focusing on biofuels and solar energy. For biofuels, in general, the Brazilian coast will be a propitious area for agricultural productivity during the XXI century, but these are areas historically intended for occupation and development of the urbanization process, that is, with limited land availability and supply for primary production. In some parts of the Northeast, Midwest and South of the country, offer for the cultivation land will be reduced. For the solar energy is observed that Brazil has area and highly expressive power for the use of this power, both today and in the coming decades, especially in the North, Northeast and Midwest. In statistical terms, the Mann-Kendal test and Sen’s Bend point to a very weak tendency to useful radiation indicator in all regions of Brazil by 2100. In addition, it is projected a significant increase in mean air temperature by the end of XXI century across the country that can mean a reduction in power conversion capability, which is sensitive to ambient temperature variations, especially in the Midwest and North of the country.