Explaining the Declining Black American Total Fertility Rates, 1992-2022: The Paradox of Human Capital Theory, Related and Relevant Factors, Implications, and Recommendations

Abstract

This paper examines the declining total fertility rates of Black women in the United States. The paper finds total fertility figures declined for all women from 2.046 children born per woman in 1992 to 1.657 in 2022; 1.978 to 1.568, respectively for Whites; and 2.416 to 1.639, respectively for Blacks. The paper explains the paradox of human capital theory, whereby college or university degree attainment, which is supposed to result in increased numbers of total fertility rates for Black women in the United States, instead contributes to their decline in childbirth during this period. Other related and relevant factors presented for this phenomenon include: more Black females aged 16 and over than their male counterparts, Black women preferring marriage first before having children, fear of sexually transmitted infections (STI), low immigration rates of Black people to the United States, high cost of living, both Black males and Black females enlisting in the United States military in large numbers and at a young age, family planning, and substantial numbers of Black males in jails and prisons. Some of the implications presented for this phenomenon include: the slow growth, stagnation or future potential decline of the Black population in the United States, and potential future decline in the number of Black voters and Blacks in elected office, including the United States Congress and state legislatures. Some recommendations presented for managing this phenomenon include: lobbying the United States federal government to increase the immigration of Black people (especially young Blacks) to the United States, and Black Americans should adopt Black children from Africa and the Black World.