Theoretical Linkages: Sugar Trade and Obesity

Abstract

This paper examines the link between international sugar trade and rising obesity rates through the lens of sugar demand dynamics in sugar-importing and exporting countries. We develop a theoretical framework illustrating how trade-induced reductions in sugar prices shift consumption patterns, particularly among price-sensitive consumers, resulting in higher aggregate sugar intake. Our model theorizes that importing countries exhibit systematically higher sugar consumption than exporting countries, contributing to elevated Body Mass Index (BMI) scores and increased obesity prevalence. Empirical analysis supports the fact that the majority of the 50 countries with the highest obesity rates are net importers of sugar, highlighting the adverse health consequences of global trade flows of sugar.