Research ArticleOpen AccessGoogle Scholar indexed
Notes on Economic Growth with Scale Effects: Is Depopulation Compatible with Growth?
Graduate School of Social Sciences, Hiroshima University, Higashi Hiroshima, Hiroshima, Japan
Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University, Toyonaka, Osaka, Japan
Faculty of Economics, Kansai University, Suita, Osaka, Japan
- 1 Graduate School of Social Sciences, Hiroshima University, Higashi Hiroshima, Hiroshima, Japan
- 2 Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University, Toyonaka, Osaka, Japan
- 3 Faculty of Economics, Kansai University, Suita, Osaka, Japan
Theoretical Economics Letters·Volume 05 (2015)·Pages 169–178·Published 25 March 2015·DOI10.4236/tel.2015.52021
Copy link · social · email
Abstract
This research develops a simple theory to analyze the compatibility of depopulation and sustainable growth. By introducing the scale effect of aggregate rather than average human capital, it shows that the economy may enter a sustainable growth path with fertility recovery, keeping away from a non-Malthusian poverty trap.
KeywordsScale EffectDepopulationHuman CapitalGrowth
- Kremer, M. (1993) Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, 681-716. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2118405
- Romer, P.M. (1990) Endogenous Technological Change. Journal of Political Economy, 98, S71-S102. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/261725
- Aghion, P. and Howitt, P. (1992) A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction. Econometrica, 60, 323-351. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2951599
- Jones, C.I. (1999) Growth: With or Without Scale Effects? American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 89, 139-144. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.89.2.139
- Prettner, K. (2013) Population Aging and Endogenous Economic Growth. Journal of Population Economics, 26, 811-834. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00148-012-0441-9
- Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations (2013) World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Volume I: Comprehensive Tables ST/ESA/SER.A/336. http://esa.un.org/wpp/Documentation/pdf/WPP2012_Volume-I_Comprehensive-Tables.pdf
- Dalgaard, C.J. and Kreiner, C.T. (2001) Is Declining Productivity Inevitable? Journal of Economic Growth, 6, 187-203. http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1011343715594
- Strulik, H. (2005) The Role of Human Capital and Population Growth in R & D-Based Models of Economic Growth. Review of International Economics, 13, 129-145. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2005.00495.x
- Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations (2014) World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections. Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP.235. http://esa.un.org/wpp/Documentation/pdf/WPP2012_Methodology.pdf
- Strulik, H., Prettner, K. and Prskawetz, A. (2013) The Past and Future of Knowledge-Based Growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 18, 411-437. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10887-013-9098-9
- Galor, O. and Weil, D.N. (2000) Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond. American Economic Review, 90, 806-828. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.90.4.806
- Jones, C.I. (1995) R & D-Based Models of Economic Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 103, 759-784. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/262002
- Romer, P.M. (1986) Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94, 1002-1037. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/261420