Do the Indian Agricultural Commodities’ Prices Exhibit Non-Linear Mean Reversion? An Empirical Evidence

Abstract

Indian economy’s inflation index often reflects double digit tendencies due to supply side shortages caused by droughts, rise in the prices of crude oil in the international markets etc. These factors may be responsible for non-linear behaviour of inflation index. Against this backdrop, an attempt is made in this study to capture non-linear mean reversion of prices of 47 agricultural commodities of India. The study employs powerful non-linear unit root test so as to generate robust findings to infer valid policy implications. The results of the study indicate the presence of unit root with drift process for Food Grains, Cereals, Pulses, Fruits, Vegetables, Primary Articles, Ragi and Rice. And for rest of the commodities, it is observed that there is evidence of mean reversion and therefore, the impact would be only temporary in nature. Thus, the empirical inferences enable the policy makers to design appropriate short term and long term polices related to the prices of agricultural commodities.