Research ArticleOpen AccessGoogle Scholar indexed
Does the Biased Coefficient Problem Plague the VAR Model?
Department of Economics, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, USA
- 1 Department of Economics, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, USA
Theoretical Economics Letters·Volume 07 (2017)·Pages 454–463·Published 16 March 2017·DOI10.4236/tel.2017.73034
Copy link · social · email
Abstract
This paper documents evidence to investigate if the explanatory variables are always correlated with the error term in the vector autoregression (VAR) model because of the property of the VAR model. I use Christiano <i>et al</i>. (CEE, 2005) as an example to examine this argument empirically. According to the findings of this paper, the impulse responses provided by the structural VAR model may be derived from the biased estimates if we allow variables to be correlated with each other through different horizons. It remains possible for a skeptic to maintain some dominant views inferred from the biased coefficients of the SVAR models.
KeywordsImpulse Response FunctionsThe Biased Estimated Coefficients
- Sims, C.A. (1980) Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica, 48, 1-48. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912017
- Bernanke, B.S., Gertler, M. and Watson, M. (1997) Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1997, 91-157. https://doi.org/10.2307/2534702
- Hamilton, J.D. and Herrera, A. (2004) Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 36, 265-286. https://doi.org/10.1353/mcb.2004.0012
- Hamilton, J.D. (1983) Oil and the Macroeconomy Since World War II. The Journal of Political Economy, 91, 228-248. https://doi.org/10.1086/261140
- Hooker, M.A. (1996) What Happened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship? Journal of Monetary Economics, 38, 195-213.
- Friedman, M. (1961) The Lag in Effect of Monetary Policy. The Journal of Political Economy, 69, 447-466. https://doi.org/10.1086/258537
- Blanchard, O.J. and Quah, D. (1988) The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. https://doi.org/10.3386/w2737
- Lv, Y. (2017) Selection of Macroeconomic Forecasting Models: One Size Fits All? Theoretical Economics Letters, forthcoming.
- Lv, Y. (2017) How Can the Error Term Be Correlated with the Explanatory Variables on the R.H.S. of a Model? Theoretical Economics Letters, 7.
- Christiano, L.J., Eichenbaum, M. and Evans, C.L. (2005) Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy. Journal of Political Economy, 113, 1-45. https://doi.org/10.1086/426038