Antibiotic Resistance, Uncertainty, and Medical Decision-Making by a Physician

Abstract

I explore the decision-making process of a physician in the context of otitis media —commonly known as an ear infection—when resistance to antibiotics is an issue. Otitis media provides a unique context in which to study such decision-making because there is no culture that one can use to definitively prove the presence of a bacterial infection. This creates an atmosphere in which the abuse of antibiotics is possible. I first use a decision tree to characterize the decision-making process and then I conduct numerical analysis using fictitious data to illustrate the working of my model. Next, I show how the dependence of the infection probability, P S , on socioeconomic variables can be used to shed light on a physician’s behavior and on the patient-physician relationship. Finally, I discuss how the research presented in this paper might be extended in the future.