Future electricity systems are challenged by deep decarbonization and concurrently increasing demand and there are growing concerns that renewables cannot shoulder this alone. Starting from the proven principle of diversity, we argue for keeping the nuclear option open or even for expanding its use. However, the perspectives are dim for the current technology as safety concerns and social aversion remain as fundamental problems. While looking for future revolutionary safe and more sustainable nuclear concepts we first review the main characteristics of civil nuclear energy, as well as its safety records and technical progress. We then list the key requirements for innovative nuclear systems designs which are less dependent on active safety systems and human performance as well as social stability. This allows us to provide a concept by concept comparison and assessment of existing and novel technologies and designs including different coolants and neutron spectra. The results indicate a high potential for far-reaching improvements compared to most advanced LWRs, although none of the candidate concepts meets all requirements convincingly, yet, helium cooled, small modular reactors (HTR-PM) come closest. We end by stressing the need for future research and development, and keeping human capital and know-how in nuclear energy; we call for an urgent increase in government and international RD&D funding by the order of a few hundreds of billions of USD per year, which will likely lead to breakthroughs that will restart productivity growth in severely affected stagnating modern economies.
KeywordsLow-Carbon Energy SystemsSustainabilityNuclear SafetySafety RequirementsAdvanced Reactor ConceptsSMRRD&D Needs
BP (2019) BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. 68th Edition. https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs /energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2019-full-report.pdf
OECD-IEA (2019) World Energy Outlook 2019. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2019
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2016) The World’s Cities in 2016—Data Booklet (ST/ESA/SER.A/392). https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/ urbanization/the_worlds_cities_in_2016_data_booklet.pdf
Sornette, D., Kröger, W. and Wheatley, S. (2019) New Ways and Needs for Exploiting Nuclear Energy. Springer, Berlin. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-97652-5
Buongiorno, J., Corradini, M., John, P. and Petti, D. (2018) The Future of Nuclear Energy in a Carbon-Constrained World. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, 26.
Greenpeace (2015) The Energy [R]evolution 2015. http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/campaigns/climate-change/energyrevolution
IAEA (2019) Preliminary Nuclear Power Facts and Figures for 2019. https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/preliminary-nuclear-power-facts-and-figures-for-2019
World Nuclear Association (WNA) (2019) World Nuclear Performance Report 2019. https://www.world-nuclear.org/getmedia/d77ef8a1-b720-44aa-9b87-abf09f474b43/performance-report-2019.pdf.aspx
PRIS (2020) Reactors under Construction. https://pris.iaea.org/PRIS/WorldStatistics/UnderConstructionReactorsByCountry.aspx
OECD-NEA and IAEA (2018) Uranium 2018: Resources, Production and Demand. NEA No. 7413. https://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/pubs/2018/7413-uranium-2018.pdf
EU-New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability (NEEDS) (2016) NEEDS Documents 20.10.2016. http://www.needs-project.org
Hirschberg, S. and Burgherr, P. (2015) Sustainability Assessment for Energy Technologies. In: Handbook of Clean Energy Systems, John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118991978.hces070
Ayoub, A., Stankovski, A., Kröger, W. and Sornette, D. (2020) Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL) and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (PSAM), Venice, Italy, 1-6 November 2020. (In Press)
Gomez Cadenas, J.J. (2012) Nuclear Power, No Thanks? The Nuclear Environmentalist. Springer, Milano. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-88-470-2478-6_10
Kröger, W. (2005) Risk Analyses and Protection Strategies for the Operation of Nuclear Power Plants. In: Alkan, et al., Eds., Landolt-Börnstein: Numerical Data and Functional Relationships in Science and Technology—New Series, Advanced Materials and Technologies, Nuclear Energy, Springer, Berlin, Chap. 2, 186-235. https://doi.org/10.1007/10857629_12
USNRC (2019) U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Accident Sequence Precursor Program 2018 Annual Report. https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML1911/ML19119A276.pdf
Ayoub, A., Kröger, W., Nusbaumer, O. and Sornette, D. (2019) Simplified/Harmonized PSA: A Generic Modeling Framework Applied to Precursor Analysis. Proceedings of the 16th International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, Charleston, 28 April-3 May 2019, 314-320.
Ayoub, A., Kröger, W. and Sornette, D. (2020) Generic Probabilistic Safety Assessment Models for International Precursor Analysis Applications. Proceedings of the International Youth Nuclear Congress (IYNC) 2020, Sydney, 8-13 March 2020.
OECD (2000) Geologic Disposal of Radioactive Waste in Perspective. Paris. https://www.oecd-nea.org/cen/publications/2548-geologic-disposal-rwm.pdf
Ayoub, A., Pfingsten, W., Podofillini, L. and Sansavini, G. (2020) Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of the Chemistry of Cesium Sorption in Deep Geological Repositories. Applied Geochemistry, 117, Article ID: 104607. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeochem.2020.104607
Medved, I. and Cerny, R. (2019) Modeling of Radionuclide Transport in Porous Media: A Review of Recent Studies. Journal of Nuclear Materials, 526, Article ID: 151765. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnucmat.2019.151765
Steefel, C.I. (2019) Reactive Transport at the Crossroads. Reviews in Mineralogy and Geochemistry, 85, 1-26. https://doi.org/10.2138/rmg.2019.85.1
Hansen, C.W., et al. (2014) Overview of Total System Model Used for the 2008 Performance Assessment for the Proposed High-Level Radioactive Waste Repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 122, 249-266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2013.06.001
Mikhailova, N. (2019) Developing the First Ever Facility for the Safe Disposal of Spent Fuel. IAEA Bulletin. https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/developing-the-first-ever-facility-for-the-safe-disposal-of-spent-fuel
Leverenz, R., Gerhard, L. and Göbel, A. (2004) The European Pressurized Water Reactor: A Safe and Competitive Solution for Future Energy Needs. Proceedings of the International Conference Nuclear Energy for New Europe, Portoroz, 6-9 September 2004, 903.
Weaver, K. (2012) Gas-Cooled Fast Reactors. In: Fast Spectrum Reactors, Springer, Boston, 489-511. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-9572-8_17
Kiplinger, J.L. and Ramos, O.Jr. (2011) Th-ING: A Sustainable Energy Source. https://www.lanl.gov/science/NSS/issue2_2011/story6full.shtml
Tsvetkov, P., Waltar, A. and Todd, D. (2012) Sustainable Development of Nuclear Energy and the Role of Fast Spectrum Reactors. In: Fast Spectrum Reactors, Springer, Boston, 3-22. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-9572-8_1
Tripplet, B.S., Loewen, E.P. and Dooies, B.J. (2010) PRISM: A Competitive Small Modular Sodium-Cooled Reactor. Nuclear Technology, 178, 186-200. https://doi.org/10.13182/NT178-186
Hitachi, G.E. (2018) GE Hitachi and PRISM Selected for U.S. Department of Energy’s Versatile Test Reactor Program. https://www.genewsroom.com/press-releases/ge-hitachi-and-prism-selected-us- department-energys-versatile-test-reactor-program
Nuclear Engineering International (2019) Titan-2 Contracted to Build Russia’s Brest 300 Reactor. https://www.neimagazine.com/news/newstitan-2-contracted-to-build-russias-brest-300-reactor-7527297
OECD-NEA Nuclear Development Publication (2016) Small Modular Reactors: Nuclear Energy Market Potential for Near-term Deployment. https://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/pubs/2016/7213-smrs.pdf
World Nuclear Association (WNA) (2020) Small Nuclear Power Reactors. https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/nuclear -power-reactors/small-nuclear-power-reactors.aspx
Reitsma, F. (2019) The Status of Different SMR Technologies and the Role of the IAEA to Support Its Member States in SMR Technology Development. IAEA Atoms for Peace and Development Presentation. https://wins.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3.-Frederik-Reitsma_IAEA_SMRs_WINS_Reitsma_5March2019.pdf
World Nuclear News (2020) Key Components of Second HTR-PM Reactor Connected. https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Key-components-of-second-HTR-PM-reactor-connected
World Nuclear News (2019) Russia Connects Floating Plant to Grid. https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Russia-connects-floating-plant-to-grid
International Energy Agency (IEA) (2019) Energy Technology RD&D Budgets 2019. https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-rd-and-d-budgets-2019#data-service-and-documentation
USA Department of Energy (2018) Final FY19 Appropriations: DOE Applied Energy R&D. https://www.aip.org/fyi/2018/final-fy19-appropriations-doe-applied-energy-rd
USA Department of Energy (2020) Final FY20 Appropriations: DOE Applied Energy R&D. https://www.aip.org/fyi/2020/final-fy20-appropriations-doe-applied-energy-rd